WIIU owners: where do you see it in 3 years?

[Osc89]

DucksUnlimited said:

Osc89 said:

DucksUnlimited said:
Are you saying you only expect around 20 million units sold?

 

That is what I am assuming right now. To do any better it needs to retain some of the Wii audience. They dropped the Wiimote so Wii Sports is out of the question, so I think we'll have a better idea when Wii Fit U comes out. Plus with rumours of VR glasses for both MS and Sony, I imagine one of them will take off and claim the casual crowd this gen.

What makes you think it will be at the 33m mark?

The gamecube released several big hitters by this point in its life, whereas the WiiU has not, yet I'm pretty sure the Wii U is tracking close to the GC's hardware sales at this point. Also, The GC suffered partially because a lot of people had a PS2 because it came out a year earlier and really took off. This holiday I see as a soft relaunch of the Wii U, so it's essentially starting at the same time as the other consoles only with a 4m+ lead. There's also the fact that many of Nintendo's franchises are likely more popular than they were with the GC thanks to the Wii introducing them to a huge install base. Plus the WiiU gamepad could recapture some of the casual audience once the console gains some momentum, which is something the GC controller never had a chance of doing.

I think the Wii U is a fair amount behind isn't it? It was 700k behind in NA in June, and Europe is doing worse. But that doesn't really matter, like you said to beat the GC they need to have increased the popularity of the franchises with the Wii. We can't know for sure either way, as only NSMB came and it didn't bring people with it.

The GC did suffer because of the PS2, but the PS4 and X1 might do the same. The combined base of Sony and MS is larger than at the end of the 6th gen, so may have more momentum, retail space etc affecting the Wii U as much as the PS2 affected the GC. One or both may flop however, so it's hard to tell.

You have good points though, N64 levels is a reasonable guess.