It's already 392k behind P3rd aligned according to Media Create Sales, which ties into my expectations that this would be the biggest launch in the series, but with weaker legs than P3rd and Unite (though the launch might still take it over Unite in LTD) for a variety of reasons, Pokemon in a month and Nintendo having a vested interest in personally hyping the launch bigger than ever (making things more frontloaded) being the biggest two.
Christmas launch for P3rd aside, I see 3.9 million to 4.3 million Japanese lifetime, and I don't see this one hitting 4 million in 10 weeks like P3rd either.
Digital sales may bring it closer, but really that'll likely be impossible to tell since we don't have digital sale numbers available for Unite and P3rd to compare them to.
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