I think both PS4/X1 will struggle after a initial strong Christmas selling period and I won't be surprised to see subscription models for both console as early as next year to counter a slump in console sales. The problem is the Third Party publishers that Sony/Microsoft are very reliant on would be very hesitant to make true exclusive AAA titles for PS4/X1. Because of the initial low user base and when there's still a massive potential audience on PS3/360. You only have to see GTA V gigantic sales to see their still a large buying audience on PS3/360 that Third Party will be very reluctant to abandoned for a long time to come. Expect Third Party support on PS4/X1 to be up-ports version of PS3/360 games for quite a long time to come.
On another note I do wonder IF just vastly higher powered console will really cut it going forward. As I think the rise of online Multi-player was a lot more important to PS3/360 success than actual upgrade in graphics. I know Microsoft has Kinnect 2 as another selling point to the X1 but the reception to it's mandatory inclusion has been somewhat lukewarm to even a hostile response.
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