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The new models, even Vita TV, aren't going to sell amazing without the games to push the hardware. The dreamcast was practically given away, but lack of games that could sell the system still made it sell like crap. Likewise, Nintendo's $80 price cut wasn't extremely impactful on 3DS sales by itself. It needed MK7 and SM3DL alongside it, and with bundles (even an OoT 3D limited edition bundle). If Vita doesn't get great games, then it won't get great sales.

 

I predict 50k first week.