Depends on a few factors...
1. Will third parties continue to support XBox 360 and PS3 so strongly? So far there are relatively few games coming exclusively to Sony and MS's next gen platforms. Final Fantasy XV, The Division (I think that's what it's called), Kingdom Hearts 3, Deep Down, Dead Rising 3, and Witcher 3. Some of these titles are 2015 or later. The biggest system selling titles are going to be cross gen. If this pattern continues into 2014, this could slow adoption for next gen consoles. If on the other hand Activision announced that the next COD would be exclusively next gen (not gonna happen) people would start trading up.
2. What big guns does Sony have? We know MS will have it's biggest franchise ready for 2014. Sony has preferred in the past to establish new franchises for new generations. I'm not sure they have anything major to really stand against Halo. Of course, none of this will matter if XBox One stays at $500. But, I don't think the XBone will last at its current price.
3. Will Nintendo's marketing stop being shit? Self explanatory really. Their dubstep crap is not working. They have a good lineup for the holidays, and if the marketing is there, the Wii U can turn around. Nintendo really needs to explain why the Gamepad is necessary.
Ultimately, I'm going to go with Nintendo. Is that because I'm a fanboy? Maybe. But, it's also because I know more about Nintendo's 2014 lineup. Mario Kart and Smash are system sellers. X and Bayonetta have a good chance to draw some attention. Nintendo needs more games for the back half of the year, but what they have is good on paper, and they have price on their side. Until Sony or MS show off a better lineup, I'll back Nintendo.
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