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HigHurtenflurst on 27 August 2013
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Max King of the Wild said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

According to VGC the Wii passed X360 in mid-August 2007, quite a while after the end of 2006.

The X360 at this time of year in 2006 was just over 4 million (about 20% higher than WiiU is now). At the end of 2006 it had managed 8 million, so assuming a similar trend the Wii U should pass 6.5 million by the end of the year.

6.5 million is way too high a figure for either console to get at launch, companies don't like creating surplus stock (particularly of bulky items) so for them to make enough to sell over 6 million in 2 months they would be assuming iPad/iPhone-like demand.

I think it would be on the optimistic side to predict the combined sales of PS4/XB1 will surpass WiiU (though that is at least plausible)

 

This was supposed to be @richardhutnik


Your forgetting one thing though. Nintendo never expected those Wii sales. If they did then they could have produced more and sold more but it turned out to be a massive hit they never saw comming and were supply constrained and since they didnt expect it you cant just flip a switch and ramp up production. Sony and Ms are both expecting their system to catch on and will definatly have more supply than the Wii. 1Mil preorders a few weeks ago. Combined they will definatly overtake the wii u. That isnt optimistic its conservative. Wii U shipped 3Mil its first quarter and ms and sony will definatly at least match that

I am not forgetting it, but even Wii would not have managed 6.5 million in it's first two months with adequate supply, and it has the price advantage over PS4/XB1 (which is important for the parents buying kids demographic at Christmas)

However, demand for the Wii aside, Sony and/or Microsoft will be worried about overproducing (particularly Sony given what happened with the PS3)... If Sony thinks the demand for PS4 is similar to that of the Wii, they will probably be wanting to have more like 4-5 million units for 2013.... to surpass the WiiU they would need over 7 million (bare in mind Sony was burned with the PS3 when they manufactured 5/6 million by March 2007)

Then there can be manufacturing issues that limit what Sony/MS will even be able to produce within the timescale... probably not anything like Nintendo because they are much bigger companies, but weren't both X360 and PS3 supply contrained at launch (for a few months for X360, and PS3 was delayed in Europe because of them) and I doubt either of them had half the number of units shipped in time to make 6.5 million sales possible. I suspect both will have learned a little from past mistakes (e.g Cell chip being complicated to produce) but consoles still have custom chips and new and unusual electronics that aren't already manufactured in bulk like ARM chips for smartphones.

I can't say I have been keeping up with the news much but I think best case scenario for PS4 (assuming there is Wii like demand) would be 4.5 million units in 2013, and maybe 3 million for XB1 (higher price plus more unusual parts to manufacture with Kinect and the supposed custom chip MS designed... oh, and Japan)

That's 7.5 million for the both of them together and I think I am being generous with those figures.... after all that has the XB1 matching the Wii, AND the PS3 doing 50% better than the Wii did.