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As for best exclusives I would go with Sony, but to be honest everyone has his/her own favorites. For me its Sony maybe Microsoft can cramp some good things together, but to be honest I think MS will have the hardest time to survive.

Who will sell the most Consoles: Hmm, thats a difficult question. My intitial responce was Sony, because I think Nintendo fans buy their console for the existing franchises and if they are missing the console has a hard time (see the wii u). And to be honest looking at the recent past I doubt Nintendo can rely only on new IPs, just look at the Wonderful 101, but truth to be told there are flops everywhere. Nintendo would probably create new great franchises with a laughting smile if they had to. They wouldn´t be the most inovative new games, but to be honest no one would care. I´d guess in the end Nintendo would sell the most consoles. Sony a close second and for microsoft, well they show they can create new franchises if they have to, but if they can repeat the success of halo, I doubt it a little. So I say Microsft might be the one who looses out in the end.