I guess Sony because they have already proven that they can produce many new ip's with a certain quality.
Nintendo teams are good and maybe in overall ratings 3-5% better but they have almost only experience in doing always the same.Since Pikmin there was no new core ip and many of them may fail when they try to produce something new.
MS-most Teams are new and therefore it is impossible to say wether they are good or not .
The new halo team did a good job,the new gears team failed and Rare hasn't produced something new that's good since kameo.As MS success is more based on buying(they bought halo and bungie,just like gears and rare or (time exclusive) mass effect.
I think they'd be no.3 in this race as they never had made something on their own that had an great impact on console gaming.
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