No.
After reading an article about Microsoft's inner-workings. No.
Microsoft started working on Kinect in 2006. Had they not I don't think they would have known or understood the technology they were dealing with. By 2009 I'm sure they knew the capabilities and limitations of the PrimeSense-based Kinect, the same year they saw the 3DV ZCam and bought the company 2 months later.
Without that experience I don't think Microsoft would have made that purchase. 3DV's ZCam would have hit the market proving superior to PrimeSense and Microsoft would have been in a much tougher position now. They likely would have still been using PrimeSense, albeit with a higher resolution, but the ZCam would have blown it away.
Kinect was a necessary but important step for Microsoft. It gave time for Microsoft to make the right business decisions, even if they came slowly.
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