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milkyjoe said:
Mario 3D World not coming until December is a far bigger problem in America (missing Black Friday) than it is in Europe, where the biggest sales weeks are in December.

The problem with Mario not coming until December is that retailers will need to order their Wii U's on faith that Mario can create a substantial boost.  With the way the Wii U has been selling in Europe, and the clearance sales that have happened, It seems unlikely that retailers will order a ton on the hope they can sell them in December.  Even with the OP's fairly modest predictions, he has the Wii U nearly doubling its lifetime sales in Europe in November and December.