Well, if we directly inscribe on Moore's Law (which is a theory not a law by the way.) Then the 4 hours a single frame of Avatar took to render will be about 7 minutes in 2020.
Must most of us don't have 4K stereo 3D TV's in our house (but hopefully we might then!)
But computer innovation isn't strictly linear. Sometimes things happen in leaps an bounds. There are breakthroughs in processing that improve things great with a great leap. So that would be 7 minutes if we rendered Avatar in the exact same was as was done in 2008. Fortunately, other innovations can happen that have a exponential effect.
Look at this example of how Microsoft is using DirectX 8.2. They are using 3 GB of data from Mars to show a real time map, but only using 16 MB of memory on the graphics card.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I5TEpAnuEg
The one with the planes? They are 4GB each plane (there are 4), 32GB for the terrain. So they use 36GB of data and run in a way that uses dramatically less ram.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idKk6fn0AlA
It's like trying to find a letter in the alphabet? If you only count from the begging, then you have to go through all the numbers to find that Z is 26. But if you use a binary tree, it only takes you 5 steps. Just as accurate, but so much less processing time.
Tim Sweeney probably has a rather good idea. I think the current gen's HD Twins can be rather amazing - and the new Super HD Twins are even better. It's not just graphic power, but other innovations that will get us to photo-realism.
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Really not sure I see any point of Consol over PC's since Kinect, Wii and other alternative ways to play have been abandoned. Top 50 'most fun' game list coming soon! |
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Tell me a funny joke! |
