Why are people predicting massive MGS4 numbers?

[pakidan101]

I don't think anybody can really accurately predict right now how MGS4 will really sell because it's in a unique position.

Here are the factors that the game would sell well:

(a)Right now MGS4 is one of, if not THE, most hyped games for the PS3 right now.

(b)It's been in development for a very long time and a lot of people are dieing to play the game.

( c )It is also the first game of its series to be on the PS3 and it is not going to be overshadowed by other games, unlike MGS3. So, one would think with all of these factors that the game would sell well.

However, there are also many factors that the game would not sell that well:

(a) It's a sequel. Not only it is a sequel, it's a sequel that requires you to know what happened in the previous games, or you are going to be extremely lost. This ain't Madden. This is MGS.

(b) It is on a console that isn't doing well. For a long time, the Metal Gear Solid Series started and was always on the Playstation consoles. I know the name Metal Gear were on the Nintendo consoles but the MGS were on Sony platforms. Anyways, they have always been on consoles that had a momentum of success. The PS1 had a sense of being favored by the public, MGS1 was in it and BAM! Instant success. MGS2, though considered one of the games that may have been overhyped, was an instant success because it was on the PS2, the platform that succeeded the PS1. MGS4, however, is on a console that overall is not doing so well. What I'm trying to say is that it isn't a game that can move consoles. It may move a few hundred thousand more in the first month but once that happens, not many more new gamers are going to get the game. Those who have the console will mostly get the game and thats about it

This isn't to say that it isn't going to sell. I may be a Wii60 owner, but my first console of choice this whole time was going to be the PS3....until I heard about the price, and I decided to try Nintendo just one more time (was a N64 and Gamecube owner...yeah, hence why I bought a PS2 as well and was going for the PS3). I myself may be going for the bundle and MGS4 could be the most successful PS3 game to date recently....however, what does that really mean overall? Would it be its quickest million-unit seller? Does that really mean much at all? I don't know and quite frankly, I don't think it matters. What matters is that MGS4 is coming late 2nd quarter of this year, and those who are strong enough of a fan for MGS games will get the game...even if it means many will get a PS3 just for the game. I just highly doubt that newcomers will get into the series, and that many of the 11 million owners of the PS3 may really not be interested in MGS4...or might lose interest in the story once they realize just how confusing it really is.