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The legs of a game depends on so many things other than hardcore vs casual... For example, the guy who only knows 2 games, GTA and PES, know when the 2 games he plays will be released and buy them on day one. Can you say that someone who plays 2 games in his life is a hardcore gamer ?

I think the most important thing to determine legs is established franchise. That's what makes people buy games without having ever tried them. Then there's advertisement. If a game is worth a TV spot, people will think it's worth buying.

People buy stuff because they know about it, and because they know they'll like it.

That leads us to a simple "casual" equation :

The more a game sells, the more casual it is.