You're talking about a bundled game here. That alone will push it sky high. If you don't believe me, look at what being bundled has done for Wii Sports, Wii Play, Forza Motorsport, Marvel: Ultimate Alliance and Motorstorm. You can expect a reasonable 3 million based off it being Metal Gear Solid 4 and the rest will come with new PS3 adopters who will be getting it whether they want to or not with an 80 GB PS3 in both America and Japan and possibly Europe.