I made a thread about sales prediction of Xbox One, PS4, and Wii U's total hardware sale before the first week of April 2014, and I'm going to copy and paste my prediction of each console in this post.
I'm guessing Xbox one and PS4 can reach up to 2.6 - 3 millions sales and the Wii U will be 8 million (assuming Mario Kart and Smash release after March). Might be low for all consoles but I'm guessing the One and PS4 would have identical launch sales to the Wii U but a bit better post launch sale from Jan to March. For the Wii U, I used the year on year chart to guess how it would do if it continues it path but with a 50% increase in sales YOY from November to March if I did my math right.
Here's the graph I mentioned.
http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2012&end_year=2013&console=WiiU
If I was to specifically assign sales for the One and PS4, I predict the One will have 2.6 million sales and the PS4 will have 3 million. I believe the PS4 will have the same great holiday launch sales of Wii-U (2.25 million from 3rd week of November to end of December). I think the One's massive 500$ price tag will give it a 2 million holiday sales at the same time frame. But i predict the PS4 and One will launch at the last week of November. If not, I still think the holiday sales will be relatively the same or better and the post launch from Jan - March will be worse than I predicted. From Jan to March, I believe the PS4 will out sell what the Wii U did by 100k only even with its steady stream of games. Again, 400$ price is high unless you're an iPad, and I'm predicit Wii U's first official price cut here at Jan to March 2014. I think One will have similar Jan to March sales as the Wii because of the massive price tag, but the steady stream of game will help it not make it lower.
So, comparing the Ps4, One and Wii's U sale for its first 4 months and a half.
PS4 = 2.95 million
Wii U= 2.85 million
One = 2.6 million
So in conclusion, I think the PS4 and One will follow Wii's relatively similar from the Jan to March. Anything beyond is harder to predict for me. Most of the ONE and PS4 games in 2014 don't have a tentative month set and it's crazy to get an accurate prediction of a new system in general. Same goes for Wii-U although I'm sure Mario Kart and Smash Bros will release in April at the latest.
Why do I think the PS4 and One will have similar Wii U sales from November to March? I think a few of the PS and xbox gamers that want better graphics have and bought their systems at 2005-2007 will have a PC already because this gen cycle was already long and PC building has become more knowledgable. Those new xbox an PS gamers from 2011 to present have been waiting for the 360 and PS3 to be cheaper and will wait for the PS4 and One to be cheap as well. 2007- 2011 gamers won't all rush in immediately as well. By that time the 360 and PS3 already had an official price cut. http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Price_cuts
