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The next gen will lag for awhile. People will start with the doom and gloom without realizing that this is a normal part of the cycle. As long as third-parties create cross-gen games scattered among all systems, adoption will be slow, kind of like with the Vita. I await the "console gaming is dead" threads with glee.

Actually, as far as I can see, supporting the current gen while launching the next gen seems to be a part of Sony's strategy, though I'm not sure about the others. After all, money is money.

The next gen will really kick in when the exclusives pile up and third-parties move on to next gen versions only. It might take a year or perhaps longer but it will happen.