There is a "threat" that those few big releases for current-gen, majority of new games being cross-gen and so on, could prove to hurt the sales of next-gen platforms. I for one am saying, that given Sony's way bigger support for PS3 than PS4/Vita, would make me not even think twice before choosing PS3 this holiday season if I didn't have one already.
Still there are to major things, some minor things in favor of next-gen platforms.
Firstly, this is the longest generation we've had, and people really are tired of it. Some already proceeded to PCs, a lot of people are waiting for the moment to jump to the next-gen platforms. Current-gen certainly shows fatigue, both on hardware side in yoy numbers (a price cut could help with sales definitely although I don't believe it will happen this year) and software, with all smaller game releases this year dissapointing especially considering the huge install base. The market is saturating, at least for this entry price, I believe PS3 for about 149$-179$ could show a very nice surge in emerging markets adding a couple of millions, but not for over 200$. Secondly the hype is big. This may a deceptive indication of success but I believe it just shows that people are really eager to get the new, exciting consoles.
Then we have the launch line ups, which are really strong for both Xbone and PS4, of course majority are cross-gen titles, but still the quantity is very good, plus the new consoles have enough power that their versions are significantly better, be it graphics, performance, advanced physics, etc. Both have very good third party support which should prevent software droughts, PS4 already has another big game for Q1 2014 in inFamous SS.
PS4 also has a really good entry price 399$ for a shiny, new Playstation with 500GB HDD comparing to a 7 year old PS3 with 250$ or more depending on HDD size and bundled games.
That said we have two like very direct competitors launching this holiday, so both will suffer in sales, if only one would launch instead like the Wii U did. Still overall I think both consoles will have stable, decent sales after the launch period in which they will most likely sell out in majority of markets, with PS4 coming slightly on top.
So it is happening...PS4 preorder.
Greatness Awaits!
