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scottie on 29 July 2013
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The problem is, he's defining "disappear" in a stupid way.

However, I'll accept his definition of disappear to be "lose a decent fraction of their marketshare"

Will it happen to MS in 5-10 years? In certain markets, sure. Internet explorer will have lost a lot of marketshare in 5-10 years, surface will likely be dead long before.

Windows will probably have lost a minuscule amount of market share in the desktop market, gone from 94% to 92% or something, and in laptops from 90% to 87%. Vista did little to effect this, the mess that is 8 did little to effect this, and that is simply because Apple is not ready for a huge marketshare, and neither is Linux. Apple does not make cheap, low spec, low build quality computers to match something made by Acer etc. So many people buy these cheap computers.

Linux is still not useable by the majority of people, unfortunately. I used it for a while, and even I had to get help at times, someone who just refers to the shortcut to any web browser as "The internet" will not cope.

Windows phone has never been a giant, but I think it's here to stay.

As for facebook, they've shown time and time again that they won't be myspaced out. Myspace was kicked out because a new, better competitor has arrived. Facebook has ALREADY had better competitors arrive, done nothing about it, and won. The way facebook is leaving this market is through their falling $/user figures. But it takes a lot more than 3 years for that to happen as long as the company manages their finances decently well.