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mmm.. hard to say.
I think it will easily outsell the top 15 Vita games,
We all know that this next pokemon title will be huge. Heck, I´m not a fan of the series, so far I only played Black Version and even so I´m getting hyped.
I just don´t think it will sell 15+ million... that would be an wooping attach rate of about 45 %.
10 million for the first year must be enough.