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I think you are missing a couple of points.

First, what if the 360 price cut, coupled with GTA IV doing better than expected slows PS3 sales tremendously?

Second, what if the PS3 is being bought feverishly by folks who were waiting for the end of the HD format war?

Third, what about folks buying the PS3 with those bigger than average tax refunds and rebate checks?

Add those factors in, please and call me in the morning.