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Gamerace on 25 February 2008
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I expect Nintendo has already increased production or in the process of doing so, but we won't see any additional units (and probably not even the full 1.8 production numbers) until after this fiscal is done. They're already in line to hit their numbers despite raising them, what? three times?

Brawl will be adequately supplied, but otherwise they'll have modest overall shipments (for Wii) but then come April, we should see a permanent increase in shipments.

Wii Fit will be enormous. Reggie already said it'll be their biggest marketing push of the year (bigger than Brawl and I've seen lots of ads for that plus competitions, etc.). They'll be doing the morning shows and likely the holy grail of women's advertising, a spot on Oprah (everyone in the audience gets a free Wii & WiiFit!! Yea!! reports papers the next day)

Gamers wanting brawl will camp out for a Wii if they have too, health conscious women (and men) wanting WiiFit will not, so Nintendo needs to make sure there's a huge surge in units to meet the demand for WiiFit.

The other factor is MarioKart. That'll also be huge. No date has been given for NA, but since Japan/Europe are launching simultaneously, theres a high likelihood it will in NA too. Unless Brawl sales are TOO high, and Reggie realizes they can't supply Brawl, MK and WiiFit adequately, then expect MK to be delayed in NA.

As for GTAIV, I do expect MS will advertise this heavily (I see lots of DMC4 ads making it look like a 360 exclusive - expect the same for GTAIV). I do expect they'll get the biggest boost from it. But even with a $50 price cut, it's still above the mass market price and that will curtail GTAIV sales. Also, while many parents let their kids play GTA3 I don't think that'll happen with GTAIV considering the voilence factor is much more realistic and graphic.

Therefore I doubt GTAIV will ever see GTA3 sales. For sure it'll boost 360 hw sales. There's no question about that, PS3's too. But enough to counter SSBB, WiiFit, increased shipments and possibly MK??

No chance.

The only thing that can save MS from being past in June is an insufficient number of Wiis in stores.