MS is either going to do really good, or really bad with the One. It could do really good, if it sells as a DVR, and gets casual people to play Dance Central and such more often, but at the same time it could do really bad because they are trying to copy steam, and failing as a DRM.
I'm inclined to say, very bad, but I'm a "hardcore" gamer, I'm biased towards aspects of the One targeted towards gaming.
So what we might see, is a split in the casual audience between the Wii/One, and Sony gets the bulk of "core" gamers. If that happens, I think Sony will come out on top, but I dunno who will do better, the One or WiiU....
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