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This is pretty much the same thing that happened with Origin a year ago.  You'd think Microsoft would have learned from that.  Origin originally required you to be online and if you were banned you lost access to all your games.  They eventually added an offline mode due to the outcry, and you can still access your single player games when banned.  They even seem to have copied the same sort of blanket bans where people were getting locked out of their Origin account for posts on the Bioware forums.  Now Microsoft is apparently throwing out xbox live bans for what you upload to skydrive.

As for steam, I am fairly sure VAC bans are game specific (though I believe old source games are grouped together).  Even then they are only for VAC enabled servers.  If you somehow manage to get your entire steam account banned, I believe it is the same as origin where you can still access games in offline mode.

kowenicki said:

Bit like if you pay to join a sports club, say a golf club for hundreds of pounds, and are kicked out for breaking rules... you dont get a refund.

This analogy only works if the only thing Microsoft keeps is the money you spent on Gold.  They don't take your golf clubs if you get kicked out.