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sales in the 1st three month will depend from production numbers-i think both systems will be sold out and the one who is able to manufacture most consoles will sell more.

in long term it depends on wether the middle class in the US continues to die-the less americans have money the less ,the less will have internet ,the less will buy the more expensive system with always on where they can't buy and sell used games to finance further game buying.

the other factor is advertising:ms has spent 500mio just for kinect.therefore they should spent a minimum of 1 bio for the xbox1 advertising and maybe 2 or 3 billion if they see that people try to avoid the system because of drm,always on,no used games,Prism scandal etc