The Syrian Civil War Update Thread

[Slimebeast]

Mr Khan said:

KungKras said:

Mr Khan said:

KungKras said:
Does anyone have a good idea about what's going to happen when one side wins? (scenarios for both sides)

Government wins: Syria becomes more of a pariah state (on the level of Iran or North Korea), or, in a desire not to be such a pariah, Syria administers slow reforms in the fashion of Myanmar (reforms, but on the old regime's terms)

Rebels win: Total sectarian warfare unless NATO intervenes. You'd either get Lebanon and 15 years of civil war, or NATO intervention which would turn the place into Iraq (democratic and stable enough to get by, but still with regular sectarian violence)

I see, the impression I'm getting is that it's all a real mess and not at all like Libya.

Is it just the Sunnis and Shiites that want to kill each other or are there more groups of people involved?

Sunni, Shi'a, Alawites, and Christians, though i would say that the bigger trouble with Syria is that the geography of the various groups is not as neatly laid out as in Libya (which was clearly Rebels East, Government West) or even Iraq, with Kurds North, Sunnis West, Shia South. In Syria it's just all kind of there.

Yes, but populations on ethnic grounds can adapt. The reality on the ground in this civil war is quite stable with the fronts being static (except for the occasional border check-point and the recent Qusayr battle) since over one year - Sunni rebels in the north and middle, Kurds in the northeast and pro-government loyals in the south which just got connected through a corridor to the coastal Alawite stronghold. A de-facto split of Syria along sectarian lines.

My dream scenario is a Syria split in three parts:

1. North-east region would become a kurdish autonomy and the natural groundworks for a future kurdish sovereign state together with kurdish parts of Iraq and possibly Turkey

2. Middle and north-west would form a semi-theocratic Sunni muslim state similar to what we see in Libya and Egypt, with Aleppo as capital.

3. The west coast and southernmost part including Damascus forming a secural state constituting of Alawites + the Christian minority population + former government shills regardless of religion.

That would be exciting.