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zorg1000 said:



pokoko said:
I've said this before, but I think that the baseline for a Nintendo console, as long as they follow the "shorter-cycle, less power" model, is closer to the GameCube than the Wii. The Wii will likely be revealed as the true anomaly.

The thing is, I don't think that should be considered a bad thing. Nintendo should aim for making a profit within the first year on their hardware while they continue to pull in money with their software. They won't get the lion's share of third-party software but that's the trade-off that comes with that model. I think it's better than go that route than to attempt to position themselves in the same space as Sony and Microsoft and thus split that market three ways.

However, if Nintendo keeps gambling by changing up its controller design with every console, then who knows? They could register another hit or they could totally bomb. That's the perils of the gimmick/innovation approach.



Id say the baseline is about 40-50 million as long as they have must have 1st party titles, solid 3rd party exclusives and decent multiplat support. I think N64/GC both had the potential to sell that many but messed up on a few things.
N64 had the great exclusives but outside of Nintendo and Rare there wasnt much else and the 3rd party support was altogether pretty horrible.
Gamecube on the other had had very good 3rd party exclusives and most of the major multiplats but the 1st party titles werent as well recieved despite being great. Sunshine seemed like a spin off, Zelda was too kiddy, Donkey Kong became a music game, Star Fox left the cockpit to fight dinosaurs, Kirby only had a racing game. 
Overall as long as Wii U has the must have 1st party games, 3rd party exclusives and mulitplats then it will do 40-50 million, maybe more if either competitor completely messes up. The 2nd half of this year has all those things and if they can keep it up for thd next few years then it will do fine.

actually the point you made about the N64 having great exclusives (ones that truly displayed the uniqueness of the system) is the reason i bought the system and my friends bought the system. i mean c'mon how many people bought an N64 just to play 4 player Goldeneye..no other system had 4 player multiplayer at that time.. if nintendo fails to do this then the wii u will probably sell less than the N64