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I've said this before, but I think that the baseline for a Nintendo console, as long as they follow the "shorter-cycle, less power" model, is closer to the GameCube than the Wii. The Wii will likely be revealed as the true anomaly.
The thing is, I don't think that should be considered a bad thing. Nintendo should aim for making a profit within the first year on their hardware while they continue to pull in money with their software. They won't get the lion's share of third-party software but that's the trade-off that comes with that model. I think it's better than go that route than to attempt to position themselves in the same space as Sony and Microsoft and thus split that market three ways.
However, if Nintendo keeps gambling by changing up its controller design with every console, then who knows? They could register another hit or they could totally bomb. That's the perils of the gimmick/innovation approach.
