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I anticipate the XO retaining its crown in North America. People would feel as though they were losing what they've "invested" in achievements, friends lists, and that gamerscore thing. Of course, the same is true for Sony, so I don't see that many turncoats next gen.

Also, Microsoft knows where their bread is buttered. They'll go big with shooters and multimedia, just like with the 360. That should be enough.

However, they'll probably lose market share in the rest of the world, and maybe even in North America. I think the XO might move backwards a bit from what the 360 accomplished.