Andrespetmonkey said:
It has similar pre-orders to Uncharted 3, which is likely to hit 7m... I think it'll get half that. I'm willing to bet it'll get more than 2.5m |
Similar pre-orders to UC3 means absolutely nothing. And UC3 is very unlikely to reach within 500K of 7m, unless Sony start mass bundling it again in time for the holidays which they won't. UC3 will sell around 5.0m lifetime itself when you separate the 1.5m sales due to mass bundling (look up the cumulative sales chart to see how 1.5m+ sales were from bundles). So I doubt TLoU will be bundled anything like UC3 because GT6 is coming out this holiday and Sony aren't going to mass bundle a new IP over the 6th installment in their biggest franchise.
TLoU should sell a little over half what UC3 would've achieved itself without bundling, around 2.75 million.
Also I over-estimated TLoU's pre-orders. I thought it would reach 393K but the pace didn't pick up, maybe to make up for it being over-tracked? Still, pre-orders should hit about 334K next week with the US launch at 360K. I'm predicting 775K-825K week 1.
