It should sell pretty damn good the second half of this year, in Japan/Europe Pikmin 3 and Luigi U retail version release the same day and I think thats a good time to do a $50-70 price cut and release a new marketing campaign, in NA do the same on Aug 4 when Pikmin 3 releases.
From that point thru christmas we have W101, Splinter Cell, Rayman, Batman, Watch Dogs, COD, Skylanders, Disney Infinity, Wind Waker, Sonic Lost World, Wii Party, Wii Fit U, Jist Dance and Mario Kart U.
For Black Friday have 8gb Wii U w/Wii Fit U plus Balance Board and 32gb Wii U with Mario Kart U bundles for $300 each. Those should sell really well and thats the week I assume the PS4/X1 will release.
Save 3D Mario for Q1 2014 to continue post holiday momentum and Smash Bros in Q2. Throughout the year release Retros game, Bayonetta 2, X, FExSMT, Yarn Yoshi and a few other games. A new Zelda plus Wii Sports U as Holiday 2014 titles.
In 2015 a price cut to $199 and big games like New Super Mario World, a 2D Mario game that feels fresh and new, and Nintendo Land 2. Other games like Zombie 2, F-Zero, Kirby could release this year.
2016 will probably be the last big year for Wii U, Donkey Kong, Star Fox and whatever Nintendo franchises that havent been released yet. For the holiday release a Console/Handheld hybrid as a "3rd Pillar" when Wii U and 3DS have 1-2 decent years left.
I think Wii U will sell really well layer this year thru 2015 then slowly decline for the next 2-3 years, basically just like Wii but about half as well. I think PS4/X1 will start off slow for there first 2-3 years like there predecessors since they will likely have $400+ price tags and PS360 will have good support thru 2015. After that point they will start to be the major consoles due to price coming down and 3rd parties shifting support.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
