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We know for sure that MS will pay for third party games to be timed exclusive.

But luckily, I don't think there will be many.

It's in the genome of MS to put all their focus on one key strategic product. They won't aquire exclusives spread on several niche genres. With their own studios they also focus on a few select big titles and they feel very confident about that strategy.

That's why I believe it will be Respawn's game, which is a logical choice to replace Gears, at least temporarily.