All depends on what you consider 'succeed' or 'fail'.
Will WiiU sales pick up with new games and an eventual price cut. Yes, of course.
Will WiiU ever come close to Wii's sales? No never.
With a lack of 3rd party support and zero interest from casual gamers WiiU's sales will be most reflective of Gamecube's. Gamecube was a profitable system but a sales disappointment. WiiU could become a profitable if underwhelming sales-wise system.
Re: 3DS comparison. Nintendo's handhelds have always dominated and 3DS is benefiting from Vita's disaster getting vertually ALL 3rd party support. It's sales should still be better in the west than they are but the sales are decent and it'll do fine.
Nintendo's home consoles are another story altogether. Nintendo's traditional IPs have never make their home consoles major successes - not since SNES at any rate. Wii Sports/Wii Fit and motion controls rocketed Wii to stardom and major success. Not Mario, Zelda, Brawl or Metroid - although Mario Party, Kart and NSMBWii all benefitted greatly from Wii's new audience. WiiU does not have an inticing hook to attract that audience back from Kinect/Mobiles and in fact, I've long maintained, the gamepad is exactly the wrong direction - it puts off casuals not attracts them. Lacking horsepower and 3rd power support WiiU has nothing to offer 'core' gamers. This leaves WiiU with strictly Nintendo fans - who will buy it once games come out. But that's 20-30m sales top I wager. Now Nintendo could pull a Nintendogs - bring out a game that attracts an all new audience and boosts sales - but no such game has been announced to date.
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