| snowdog said:
I can't understand the thinking of some people. It's sold over 3m already and imo it should do another 3m between now and November and should do another 4m from November until the end of the year. Those figures should be doable considering that we're going to see Wii Fit U, Pikmin 3, The Wonderful 101, Game & Wario, Wind Waker HD, 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 all released before the end of the year, plus I suspect one or two surprises that we don't know about yet. |
There are 24 weeks until November (starting with the week ending May 25th). Considering the performance of Game & Wario in Japan, I doubt it will have a significant impact on hardware sales. So let's go with Pikmin 3 as the point where sales recover. That is still 8 weeks away in Japan, and 10/11 in EU/NA. For the sake of simplicity, let's just say there will by 9 more weeks of low sales.
Even if we are optimistic, and say the Wii U can maintain 30k per week, we'd be looking at only 270k in that time period. That would leave 2.73 million for the last 15 weeks or 180k per week. In Japan, the first Pikmin game boosted Gamecube sales from 10k to 25k. The second game saw sales rise from 5,500 to 8,700. Considering those figures, a 7.6x sales boost seems unlikely.
Three million between those dates would also mean sales 49% higher than the 360 and 29% higher than the PS3 for the same time periods in 06/07. Considering how much the Wii U has lagged for the first part of the year, it does not seem logical that it would suddenly outpace them by such a margin.
