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Metallicube on 24 May 2013
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pezus said:
Metallicube said:
platformmaster918 said:

They won't Sony consoles always sell great after their successors.  Look at PS1 and 2 and now PSP.  PS2 sold about 33% of it's total after PS3 came out.  It's been a longer gen so we can expect a dip to maybe 25% of its sales being post gen.  That puts PS3 well above 100m and probably above Wii.  Let's factor in that it hasn't gotten to $200 yet (a big price point that PS2 got to in year 2).  Don't talk about it not being a beast because these percentages aren't affected by total numbers they are relative to that console's sales.

Oh lord.. I really wish people here would stop this insane notion of the PS3 passing the Wii. Sony faithful, it's just not going to happen. I know it's tough, but TRY to absorb this. Seriously, this is the ONE thing about these forums that annoys me.

Decent analysis and all but:

You think it's likely PS3 will not pass Wii, even though PS3 is selling at least 100k more per week, has games yet to be released, and will still be in production years from now while Wii will? I think that's a long shot. Might take awhile, might even take 4 years or so, but I think PS3 passing Wii is inevitable at this point. One important factor people forget is that Sony still has room for a pretty significant price drop, not to mention the holiday seasons to come, as well as the "rest of the world" sales.

Still, it's easy to see that you've changed your tune. Now you think the gap will be only about 5m, yet call those saying this is a very good possibility "insane". Are you really that confident in your own ability to predict?

4 years is under the assumption that PS3 will continue to outsell it by 100k for-ever and ever.. Obviously that's not going to happen, as the PS3 ages further, and once PS4 comes out that decline goes even steeper. Do you really believe the PS3 is not going to decline in years 8-10 and so on, with a brand new console from Sony out? Come on, even the PS2 declined majorly by that point.. Also, you seem to believe that only Sony can be affected by the holiday season and price cut. What about Wii? Nintendo can still drop the price of it once more, and the holiday season tends to favor Nintendo products anyway.

What happens when PS3 only outsells the Wii 50k to 10k? Then you're talking like a whole year just for a 3 million gain. Remember, Sony at this point has far more to lose, whereas Nintendo has pretty much leveled off and hit the bottom already as they've moved on to their next console.

In other words, won't happen. Even in the 1% chance that it does, this site, NPD, Famitsu, etc, will have long since ceased tracking the numbers and have moved on to next gen, so we'll never truly know, rendering all this speculation useless. Sony will spout their "shipped" numbers and we'll never know how many of those units were actually sold.