platformmaster918 said:
They won't Sony consoles always sell great after their successors. Look at PS1 and 2 and now PSP. PS2 sold about 33% of it's total after PS3 came out. It's been a longer gen so we can expect a dip to maybe 25% of its sales being post gen. That puts PS3 well above 100m and probably above Wii. Let's factor in that it hasn't gotten to $200 yet (a big price point that PS2 got to in year 2). Don't talk about it not being a beast because these percentages aren't affected by total numbers they are relative to that console's sales. |
Oh lord.. I really wish people here would stop this insane notion of the PS3 passing the Wii. Sony faithful, it's just not going to happen. I know it's tough, but TRY to absorb this. Seriously, this is the ONE thing about these forums that annoys me.
Let's do some analysis here.. PS3, at it's current rate, outsells Wii by 100k a week, if this website is to be believed.. That's roughly 450k per month. The PS3 currently has a 22 million deficit. That means, even if PS3 somehow kept selling at its current rate (which we all know is obviously not going to happen that too much longer), it would STILL take roughly 4 years for the PS3 to catch the Wii, at which point it would pretty much be irrelivent anyway, and there would likely be no concrete data to prove it at that point. Now, obviously, the PS3 sales are going to decline, and they are going to decline soon. Of course, so will Wii sales, but the kicker is that Wii has much less to lose at this point than PS3. So let's say PS3 declines to 50k per week while Wii declines to 10k per week within the next couple years on average (which I believe is a realistic scenario). Then it becomes nearly impossible for Ps3 to catch the Wii, because the deficit FAR outweights any traction gained. Let's assume the PS4 comes out late this year, or early next. Once 2014 rolls around, it is likely PS3 begins to sell that the aforementioned rate, as Sonys current console will likely kill momentum of its previous one.
At the end of the day, when all the dust settles, I see a final total of PS3: 97 million (or roughly 20 million more total), and Wii trickling to roughly 102 million sold (about 3 million more total). In other words, close, but no cigar; too little too late. To Sony's credit, PS3 will certainly get far closer than I ever expected, and far closer than they should have been, since Nintendo got arrogant and decided to go back to making the games THEY wanted to make, rather than the games CONSUMERS wanted, but I digress..
I guess in a sense you can view this as a victory for both Sony and Nintendo, as Nintendo was coming off a dismal 3rd place performance of the Gamecube, in which the entire industry was essentially against them, and Sony, who started out miserably out the gate with PS3 mainly thanks to the $599USD and the lack of games initially, eventually rebounded and got very close to becoming the top selling console again..
