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It's going to be either 8/7 or 7/8 Traditional/Kinect controlled so about 50/50. I know a lot of people are hoping only about 2 of them are going to be Kinect, but when Kinect was an optional peripheral Microsoft studios had 4 games for it at launch alone, now that they are going to the expense of pairing one with every console you are going to see a greater focus, not less.

Edit, Actually I think they said 'at least' 15 games so I'm going to assume 16 and say a clear 8/8 split. If it's 8 AAA games in the first year that's still quite good, I wouldn't expect much more from Sony anyway.