This is tough.
With the various MS reports that they are "6 mos behind schedule" I've figured they were likely not coming to the holidays, November to be specific.
Well Sony confirmed the "holidays" as their launch. For them that has been November typically, so I expect the same.
However, MS purposefully vague with "this year".
There were also rumors that at one point MS wanted to deliver at the same time as WiiU (reason for sig bet) and then combining that with the 6 mos delay rumor... well that only means MS was pushed out to mid THIS year.. i.e. June/July.
The hardware is clearly finished in Xbox One. Its out and media has their grubby little hands all over it with inside pics and everything.
I'm thinking MS may actually launch early in say September. This gets them out well before Sony and cuts dramatically down on the time Nintendo has post-E3 to build up userbase with their late-2013 titles.
So for now, I'm putting my money on MS releasing first.
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