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At least for the 1st 12 months, the console that is released 1st will likely lead in total sales.  The xbox fans will buy the Xbox1 and PS fans will buy the PS4.  But there are lots of people that will only buy (and able to afford) only 1 of the system.  In few years, the sales of the console will likely separate out depending on which system/ecosystem/games are better.

 

On a side note, Battlefield 4 better have 64 player multiplayer on the next gen console.....