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I don't think so because MS has disoppointed me many times at E3 in the past, but I'm ready to be blown away.

Worst case scenario is this:

Out of those "15 exclusives in first year of Xbox One",

2 might be postponed (Black Tusk's game) or canceled altogether (MS LA)
5 might be Kinect games (Ryse, family games by Rare, Connected experiences and others)
2 might be Digital download/Live Arcade titles
2 might be timed third party exclusives (Remedy's Quantum Break & Respawn's Titan)
4 might be AAA first party exclusives (Forza 5, Fable and Rare core IP during launch window, and Halo 5 not until in late 2014)

Out of which the "8 new IP" might be,

Remedy's Quantum Break
Respawn's Titan
Black Tusk Studio's shooter/zombie game
MS studios LA's cinematic game
Ryse
MS Connected experience's social Kinect game
Kinect family game
Live Arcade title by small studio