You are more than welcome to think that, but since they have been talking about releasing a new console for several years I don't think it is all that likely.
Also, remember Microsoft is rather good at keeping secrets - even to the point of switching spec cards on a previous console the day of a reveal.
Although, if Sony was not releasing this year, they may have wanted to delay it too. But everyone in the industry knows that both have been very close to releasing new systems. So I think it's effect is unlikely.
But the biggest meter, and the one they stated, was when sales fall. And X360 sales have fallen this year. So that is their signal to release something new.
And to be fair, they did admit release in 2005 because they thought Sony was releasing then.







