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snowdog on 19 May 2013
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Scoobes said:
snowdog said:
That guy has probably got the sack and won't work in the industry again.

As for EA their hissy fit will end before the end of the year when shareholders demand that the publisher doesn't ignore a console that's going to be the market leader for a while. By the end of this year I'm expecting the Wii U to have an installed userbase over 10m, and the PS4 and 720 lucky to have an installed userbase of 2m each at the most. It's going to take years for the PS4 and 720 to close that gap, if they manage to do it before the Wii 3 arrives at all.

10m is do-able if Nintendo release some decent first party software but PS4 and Xbox should be able to manage around 3 million each in their first holiday seasons. WiiU managed around 3 million in its release period and holiday season with little in the way of compelling software. Early adopting Playstation and Xbox fans should be able to match that figure meaning 6 million competing consoles with what looks to be greater third party support.



There's absolutely no way they could possibly do 3m each. Even if you take the retail price of each out of the equation (the Wii U, PS3 and 360 will all be cheaper to buy) you've got to take into account that both have components made on a 28nm process which hasn't fully matured yet so there's going to be a good amount of wasted silicon due to low yields.

The Wii U had a good launch because Nintendo were able to get stock on shelves in good supply. For the PS4 and 720 to do 3m each they would have to do pretty much the same level of sales as the Wii unless I'm remembering incorrectly. It's not going to happen.