I cannot imagine how shitty online play would be still to this day had MS not ripped the torch from Sega's cold, dead hands and carried it on.
The GCN may or may not have sold more, there's no guarantee that gamers who went the way of MS would have went Nintendo, especially at the 55-100% clip you speculate on in the OP.
Nintendo has no one to blame but themselves. They went with the weak hardware and different control method. It worked for them last gen, but then they're the ones who again went with weak hardware and another different control method. They are the ones who picked the terrible name.
They have tons of money in the bank. They should have been more aggressive snatching up 3rd party games and studios, and made more powerful hardware.
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