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Yakuzaice on 17 May 2013
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Michael-5 said:

1. I track sales on an excel file, and make a thread every quarter. I have 3DS up YoY in North America by about 35% for April/May, but my Q1 excel file needs to be updated since VGC recently had a huge adjustment. I forgot 3DS wasn't doing that amazing, I was being lazy and didn't look up my Q1 file.

I have 3DS as down by about 43% or so for Q1. So right now it's still likely down YoY, but 3DS is tracking a lot better now then it was in January, and has more software coming out which will boost sales. Still, 3DS was doing super well in Q1 of 2012 because of the $80 price cut in 2011, but sales got weaker in fall 2012. 2013 should have a considerable increase in NA and WW 3DS sales as 3DS is now selling better on a weekly basis.

So if 3DS keeps up this pace, it should still perform better in 2013 then it did in 2012, and if Animal Crossing and Pokemon make a big impact on sales (which they should) then 3DS could do a lot better, maybe even sell around 20 million for the year. Worst case, I think 3DS will break 15 million.

2. As for Wii U sales, I think Wii U will sell "much better" then all other Nintendo home consoles except the Wii. Not 100% sure if Wii U will outsell the Wii, it might, it might not, it's too early to tell. However NES sold fairly well, if Wii U sells much less then I think it will, I think worst case it will still outsell the NES, just not by a huge margin.

It's not tracking a lot better now though.  In January it averaged between 25.2-29.8k.  In April it averaged 25.8-32.5k in the US.  It is also most likely down YoY for both of these months.  Best case scenario it is up a few percent in April if sales are equal to the 360.  Considering the huge overtracking for both the 3DS and Luigi in April, it is pretty clear the May numbers are not very accurate.

Ending the year with over 39% growth YoY seems like a tall order when it has been down so far.  At the moment, even with the overtracked April numbers it will need to be up 54% YoY for the last eight months to hit 20 million.

I just don't see any logical reason for the Wii U to start performing that well.  We're talking about a system that has trailed Gamecube monthly sales for six months in a row.  Putting up some of the worst monthly figures ever for a relevant console.  Yet you think it will manage to triple what the Gamecube did in the Americas?  If more than 34 million is much less than you expect, what do you expect?  40 million? 45?  The Wii did 1.4 million in the US in the first four months of 2007.  That's more than six times what the Wii U is doing in the same time frame and you're actually entertaining the thought that the Wii U can sell more than the Wii?

Do you really think 100% of the casual buyers (and more) will return?  It doesn't seem to be the case on the 3DS looking at sales of Brain Training or Nintendogs.  I know people like to point to the PS3's rocky start as an example that consoles can turn it around, but its worst month was more than double what the Wii U did in April.  Its sales are also nowhere near the NES or Wii in North America.