| CGI-Quality said: Good assessment, I'd say. Nintendo could still do something, but if the PS4 [or Next Xbox] grab enough of the core base, which is likely, I don't imagine pulling out of this hole will be a simple thing. |
In short, the scenario goes something like Nintendo ends production of the Wii after 2013 holiday season sales trickle down to nothing with no significant new titles on the horizon. I think it's fair to say Nintendo has essentially stopped diverting resources to Wii software development already.
The scenario continues where the PS3 stays on the market past 2016 ("ten year life cycle" ten years of hardware and software support) at $199, maybe $149, and generates sales in all those smaller international markets where the PS2 continued to generate sales long after the PS3 had taken its place. If nothing else, the PS3 is still a fairly inexpensive set top box for accessing video content and services, even if they are never used to play retail copy games.
It's conceivable, but hardly the most probable scenario in which the PS3 manages to sell over 20m units, edging out the Wii when the final tallies are added up and the 7th gen officially rolls to a halt.
Personally, I'm not counting on it and frankly, by 2016 I'm not even going to remember having given it a second thought.
