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Your prediction assumes that it never takes off. Which i still see it selling upwards of 70 million. Even with the slow start. People though the same thing about the ps3 in the first years of it's life. But look at it now, it may end up being number one this gen. PS3 also proves that a consoles start has nothing to do with it's finish. E3 is coming up and game informer has stated the PSV will have a large section of the show. A price cut to match the 3DS could double it sales over night. I keep saying this, but if Sony wants to really kick start the vita, all they need is a companion app for GT6 that allows you to use the vita as a speed and tachometer. Die hard GT fans are nuts, spending thousands on their rigs. So far I have about 500 in mine, when i'm done i'll have about two G's tied up in it and I'll buy a second vita just for my rig.