You're predictions are fairly reasonable. I wouldn't expect more than a hundred million out of the 3DS either, and I think it would still be considered pretty successful, even if it doesn't live up to the DS.
The Wii U would certainly be a disappointment at that level. I think it will do better than that, more like the PS3/360 of this generation, only profitable because Nintendo has better software than competitors and does a better job controlling costs. As weak as it seems, the Wii U does seem to actually be getting better 3rd party support than the Wii, although Nintendo hasn't managed to craft a breakout system seller for it yet.
"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event." — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.
