Wii helps PS3?

[Bodhesatva]

Borkachev said:

I think a lot of gamers will miss this on Wii. In theory nongamer market should be bigger than the gamer market. This means Wii wins. All other gamers will stick with PS3, 360. Only the Nintendo fans 25mln wil buy a Wii + nongamers.

This is a false dilemma. Gamers don't have to "miss" anything on Wii, because most people who own the graphically superior systems will also own the Wii. The lower price point of the Wii allows this. Nintendo has wriggled its way into the market in such a way that it can sell its system to the casual gamers and Nintendo fans as well as every hardcore gamer who wants a different experience once in a while.

albhum said:

BUT, if the brutal anti-sony campaign that most media are feeding keeps on projecting such a powerful shadow over PS3 future and doesn't slow down, then I see PS3 following the fate of the Concorde.

The only anti-Sony campaign is the one put on by Sony itself. The PS3 doesn't need its own jeering squad; Sony's endless stream of business and PR blunders generates all the bad press they could ever use.

That being said, I don't think this is true at all:

naznatips said:

HD penetration or not, I'm almost positive that the outcome of this generation has already been determined. It will be Wii, Xbox 360, PS3. The only thing that hasn't been determined is if the PS3 will even survive the next 5 or 6 years to the end of the generation.

Sony still has the potential to completely turn the PS3 around. At this price point it's highly doubtful that it will see the success of its predecessors, but it could potentially pull ahead of the Wii. And with even the tiniest amount of luck, it will pass the 360. The reason for this, I think, was touched on in this post:

TalonMan said:

I've got friends that are DIE-HARD Sony fans, and even THEY have failed to commit to the PS3 at this point. These are the same guys that were standing out in the freezing cold to collect a PS2 on launch day 6 years ago - it's now 7 months since the PS3 launched, and they seem no closer to purchasing one today then they did when it came out in November.

My point in quoting this isn't that these people aren't buying, but that people like this exist - and they exist in droves: people who badly want a PS3, but are just waiting for Sony to give them the slightest incentive to buy one. Sure, the PS3 is behind in sales right now, but none of the new consoles has even breached the 10mil mark yet. There are still 100 million+ gamers from last generation still waiting to make their next purchase, and the vast majority of them were PS2 owners. They're comfortable with the PS controller, they're fans of the PS brandname, and they've already been sold on the Sony-exclusive (or semi-exclusive) franchises. They're all waiting, and all they need is a reason to upgrade. I'm one of these. And these intangible factors add up to a mountain more than the 360's tangible advantages.

That's why, if Sony hits us by this Christmas with MGS4, Assassin's Creed, GTA4, LittleBigPlanet, etc. (notice that they don't all have to be exclusives), and a price drop, all of this bad publicity will vanish like a bad dream. The turnaround will happen overnight. All Sony has to do is not screw it up... kind of like they've been so dismally failing to do for the last year or so. And a screwup is still definitely possible: they could stubbornly maintain the $600 price tag, they could let a major exclusive slip away (or drive one away), they could make a bunch more PR blunders... use your imagination! So far they've been doing their best to invent new ways to fail. But at some point they've got to learn, and when it happens they've got nowhere to go but up.

I largely agree with this post, and I think it's both well argued and worded. I do have a few points to make, however.

While I think you're absolutely right that there are millions of Sony fans still unsure if they want to continue on the Playstation bandwagon or not, I think it's unfair to state (or imply) that the full 100 million remaining buyers would fall into this category. I would suspect a healthy portion -- at least half -- buy whatever their friends seem to be playing, whatever has the most games available, or whatever has some random non-marquee title they want (tied to simply having more games. Example: I'd bet Guitar Hero sold more PS2s than any Sony-branded franchise besides Gran Turismo). And I have evidence to support this notion: no system in history has ever mounted a turn around in the manner you're describing. Not even close. At this point in a generational cycle, the system that was selling the best ended selling the most, the system that was selling the worst ended last, and everything in between remained sandwiched. Every.Single.Time.

I'm not suggesting that it's impossible, mind you: just historically unprecedented, and therefore unlikely. The sales trends consistantly spiral up and up (or down and down), almost regardless of quality titles (if Zelda: Ocarina of Time, Mario 64 and Goldeneye couldn't save the N64, what would?)

On the other hand, one thing you did not mention was 3rd party support. Historically, the systems that go into the generation with the heaviest 3rd party support tend to do well -- in fact, they (almost?) always win. In this case, that's not happening. But I do think it provides Sony with some breathing room: it's clear that developer support is already shifting dramatically away from the Playstation 3 and towards the Wii, but it's not as if major 3rd party titles such as Final Fantasy XIII and MGS4 were simply canceled, with the millions of dollars already spent wasted. The first batch of major third party titles is still planned for the system, and this provides Sony with some extra breathing room that, historically, consoles have not had when their dominance was wavering. For example, the N64 started out with poor 3rd party support from the very beginning (for good reason, I might add).