I agree, as long as they ship more than the 1,5 million figure, expect a small spike at MP3 release in summer and in christmas with Galaxy and Brawl. Plus, if they make the E3 with that rumored Mario Kart anouncement, sales are going to fly.
One thing that make me wonder though..By now we know that the Wii is owned by a far wider demographic than the other 2 consoles, hardcore or not. Halo 3 though a huge title, was expected by all current X360 owners. After all, the previous x-box was known as the "Halo console". So i expect it won't shift that many consoles, because a lot of the userbase got their x360 for that reason alone. (Think Frat here if you like). While it is true that lots of Wii owners did have Mario on their mind to make a simillar assumption, it come to the question on how many are buying the Wii because of it's innovation, or the first party titles.

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