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i have no clue which developer they will pay money to get an exclusive but if we talk about which games, probably new ips where the publisher doesn't really know if it will be a huge success or not to be safe with some extra cash but i think if microsoft will pay for more as one exclusive game they will be only timed exclusive (maybe one year). that would be cheaper for microsoft and would be also better for the publisher if that game will be a huge success on xbox because they surely want to make more games then and sell them on every console which would be bad without the first game on the system.

but i don't think ubisoft since they get already a lot of money from sony for exclusive content in their games.