I really don't see any of the existing machines, with the possible exception of Wii U if they do a price cut in October, jumping up much late in the year. PS3 & X360 each had their peaks in 2011 if you go by calendar year in the US market, there is little reason to believe they won't be at half their peak this year going by the drop last year, and the drops so far this year.
Based on recent trends, this is how I visualize 2013 ending up at year end when all the data has arrived:
I think 2012 is about as weak as the US console market can be, unless demand for consoles has totally collapsed - we'll have to see. The US isn't Europe, we added 15 or 20 million people from 2006 to 2012, and our unemployment only jumped from 5% to 8% in that time, so in theory the US is a much bigger market than in 2006, especially if most people are willing to upgrade to the new machines. Everybody hope there has been no collapse in console demand - from 2014 onwards there are only going to be another 4-8m X360s / PS3s / Wiis sold in the US.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
